Больше цитат
27 февраля 2023 г., 02:31
•we can improve our decision-making abilities by learning to think probabilistically
•when making decisions, it's essential to consider more than one possible outcome. This means considering various scenarios and assessing the likelihood of each outcome
•then it’s necessary to assign probabilities and update them later based on the new information
•weight the potential costs and benefits
•thinking in terms of "bets" rather than "certainties" can help us embrace uncertainty and make better decisions
•thinking in terms of "bets" means framing decisions as a series of probabilities, with each option representing a different "bet" or potential outcome. Rather than assuming that a particular outcome is certain, it’s better to consider the range of possible outcomes and assess the likelihood of each
